Moderna’s Rollercoaster Ride: From Pandemic Hero to Uncertain Future #

The Rise and Fall of a Biotech Star #

In the early days of the pandemic, Wall Street rushed to invest in companies poised to thrive in the new environment. Work-from-home stocks like Zoom and Peloton, along with vaccine makers Pfizer and Moderna, emerged as early winners.

Moderna’s journey has been particularly tumultuous. The Cambridge, Massachusetts company, founded in 2010, became the largest US biotech IPO in history in 2018. Investors were enthusiastic about Moderna’s mRNA research, despite the company having no products on the market and no plans for one until at least 2025.

The pandemic accelerated Moderna’s timeline dramatically. In spring 2020, the US government enlisted Moderna for Operation Warp Speed. Within nine months, Moderna, Pfizer, and BioNTech began shipping millions of vaccines.

Moderna’s stock price peaked in August 2021, up 2,000% from its IPO. However, it has since fallen 90% from that peak, with analysts predicting further decline.

Current Challenges #

Moderna faces several hurdles:

It’s burning cash on research and development.
The company doesn’t expect to be cashflow positive until 2028.
Its Covid vaccine remains the primary revenue driver.
Its RSV vaccine is not expected to be a major player.

As a result, short-sellers are targeting Moderna heavily. It now ranks among the top five most shorted stocks in the S&P 500.

Political Uncertainty #

The potential appointment of vaccine skeptics to key government positions under a new administration adds another layer of uncertainty for vaccine makers. When Donald Trump announced Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as his pick to head the Department of Health and Human Services, shares of prominent vaccine makers, including Moderna, Pfizer, and Novavax, fell across the board.

Kennedy’s appointment has raised concerns in the scientific community, with 77 Nobel laureates urging senators to oppose his nomination due to his anti-vaccine stance.

The impact of such appointments on vaccine policy and public health initiatives remains uncertain, but Wall Street’s reaction suggests a cautious outlook for vaccine manufacturers.

As Moderna navigates these challenges, its future remains uncertain. The company’s ability to diversify its product portfolio and maintain its position in the evolving healthcare landscape will be crucial in determining its long-term success.